On Sept. 17 political analyst Charlie Cook gave a talk at the Haven J. Barlow Lecture Hall, organized by the Walker Institute of Politics & Public Service. It took place on Constitution Day and lasted from 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Cook’s talk mainly focused on the current political climate and the rise of political violence, along with his own reflections on the presidential election of 2024 last year and his forecast for the upcoming midterms in 2026.
On the topic of increasing polarization, Cook explained that defecting to the other party used to be more common if voters disliked their nominee. “But nowadays there’s practically none of that. And now people are more likely … to either skip over that office when they’re voting or just not vote at all in that election than defect,” Cook said.
Cook later attributed the “wheels coming off the bus” to the Federal Communications Commission’s decision in 1987 to repeal the Fairness Doctrine, which had said that broadcast stations had to try and be impartial. This then led to the rise of ideological, partisan talk radio, cable network news and ideological websites on the Internet that weren’t, in Cook’s words, “curated.”
When the conversation shifted to the election of 2024 last year, Cook gave his thoughts on the reasons for President Donald Trump’s victory and reelection. “Anybody whose name’s on the door, like Biden-Harris, if your side’s tanking the way they were, then she wasn’t going to have much of a chance,” Cook said.
Cook went on to talk about Trump’s win in the 2024 election, comparing it to former President Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
“When Trump won in 2024, he won for the same reason that Biden had won in 2020. Biden won in 2020 because of who he wasn’t rather than who he was,” Cook said. “He won because he was the alternative to Donald Trump, and more people wanted to replace Trump than keep him.”
Besides just looking back at the presidential election last year, people’s attention has shifted to the upcoming closely contested midterm elections, where Republicans must hold on to their slim majority to keep control of the House of Representatives.
“Now, in the House, the House pretty much reflects the country. And if you’ve got an evenly divided country, as we have, you’re going to have a House that’s more or less pretty evenly divided as well. And it has been for three elections in a row almost tied,” Cook said. “But when you only have a job approval rating of about 33% or 34% approval among independents who are really the only free agents out there in the process … you’re going to have a really, really hard time holding on to a majority in the House.”
Cook’s overall analysis showed a currently deeply divided electorate where party loyalty comes first, leaving all attendees with a reminder of polarization being at historic highs and possibly shaping American politics for the foreseeable future.
